It all comes down to Saturday night.

Duke and Carolina will face off in the final regular season game, both sitting at the top of the ACC tied with 13-2 records. The winner of the game at Cameron Saturday will win the ACC regular season outright.

I can’t recall the last time that happened. The closest I can recall was In 2001, when Duke went to Chapel Hill one game behind and won the game to take a share of the regular season along with UNC. But I can’t recall an occasion in recent history where the regular season was decided by a final “winner take all” game. Usually it’s already been decided by then. And to add to the drama this year, a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament for both teams may be on the line as well.

The good thing for Carolina is that they come into the game playing well again and Ty Lawson - who missed the first Duke game, among many others - will be back on the floor (albeit still not at 100% yet.) I believe they’ve adjusted to Lawson not being there, so they shouldn’t have some of the struggles they had in the first game, which was shortly after his injury. Carolina shot the ball poorly from outside in Duke’s win as well, so if they shoot the ball well from outside (particularly Ellington and Green), they will be tough to beat unless Duke can slow down Hansbrough this time around. Brian Zoubek - who missed the previous game for Duke - is not going to stop Hansbrough, but if he can provide a few minutes here and there and help slow him down, that will be beneficial for Duke. It would be particularly nice if Duke could manage to get Hansbrough into early foul trouble (in either or both halves), but that’s extremely unlikely since ACC officials tend to give Hansbrough carte blanche to impose his will inside the lane (yeah, Duke gets all the calls. Right…)

The good thing for Duke is that it seems they’ve moved past their recent shooting woes. During a three-game stretch - which included their two ACC losses - they managed only 33% from 3-point range, and it would have been worse were it not for them catching fire late against Miami. Once they got their 3-point shot back, they went cold inside the arc against NC State, shooting only 9-29 (31%) and missing a lot of shots inside of 8 feet. They shot much better against Virginia two nights ago (51% overall, 44% 3-point) and they needed that coming into this game. You don’t want to come in to the biggest game of the year throwing up a lot of bricks. The key to their first win was their shooting, especially from behind the arc, and if they are to have a chance to win tomorrow, they’ll have do it again.

Home court seems to have been more of an edge for Duke than UNC during this decade. Since 2000, Duke has won 6 of 9 at Chapel Hill, while UNC has won 3 of 8 at Cameron. Four times they’ve split the regular season, and 2 of those 4 times they’ve both lost at home. Duke has thrice swept the regular season, to Carolina’s once (last year.) However, of the 3 wins in Carmeron for UNC, two have come the past two seasons. If Duke wants to avoid losing 3 in a row at home to Carolina, they need to hold serve again tomorrow night.

Duke has already exceeded my expectations this year. After what was clearly a “down year” last season (by Duke standards), I had great faith that they would easily improve on last season. I am a little surprised, however, that the improvement has been as significant as it has, particularly with so little help inside. I wouldn’t have expected a 26-3 record at this point in the season. I predicted a couple of months ago that they would finish 12-4 and second place in the ACC. They have guaranteed at least second place and exceeded my record prediction with 13 wins. And, they can finish at 14-2 and 1st place with a win tomorrow night.

I thought they were a year away from doing any damage in the NCAA tournament, and I do believe next year will be their year to be a favorite. Still being a very young team may or may not be a factor in their success for the remainder of the season, but if they play to their ability and shoot the ball well, they can play with just about anyone. Hopefully, they’ll play their best tomorrow night, and continue that path deeper into March.

I think it’s time for another classic. There have been plenty in this rivalry, but this game means more than usual this time around. The ACC regular season, and possibly a #1 seed in two weeks, will be decided by 40 minutes in Cameron tomorrow night.

Tennessee/Memphis had nothing on this game. This is what college basketball is all about.

ACC.

Duke.

Carolina.

Cameron Crazies.

March.

I love it.

Go Duke!