It’s true. But who cares? The ACC basketball season has begun!

Duke tips off their ACC season on Sunday night as Virginia comes to Cameron, so I need to go on record with my ACC record prediction for the Blue Devils. Last year I thought I was being a bit pessimistic when I predicted a 10-6 record in the ACC. Turns out it was actually an optimistic pick instead, as they finished at 8-8. With a number of very close games, they only needed a few more shots to drop to finish 10-6 or even 11-5. Of course, had a couple of shots not dropped, they may also have been 6-10.

The expectation is always high for Duke, but after a sub par season and with the arrival this year of three talented freshmen (including one of the best in the country,) significant improvement over last year is certainly the expected outcome this season. And yes, 22 wins evidently qualifies as sub par at Duke, although the 8-8 ACC mark is probably the primary reason it was considered a “bad year.” Clearly they’ve looked much better in the preseason this year, but as always, the ACC is a step up, so it all starts for real this weekend. It’s a late start for Duke, as they usually play their first ACC game in December, but they were not on that schedule this year. Duke and Virginia are two of the four teams that haven’t yet played a conference game.

The biggest area of concern for Duke, of course, is their inside play. Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek have been adequate, but again, henceforth the competition will be stronger most nights. They’ll have to bring it every night. Duke clearly missed both of those players Wednesday night in a win over Temple - Zoubek is out 1-3 weeks with a foot injury, and Thomas is battling a respiratory infection. They’ll need these guys in the game to avoid being too overmatched inside. Their quickness and athleticism help them overcome some of their inside deficit, but if these two cannot stay healthy for the long haul, it will be much harder on them. They were fine last night, but they don’t play Temple every night.

After predicting 10-6 last year, and seeing marked improvement so far, I will go a little better this year. While Marty Pocius is already out for the season, I don’t think that will hurt them significantly, and I will otherwise assume everyone else stays healthy for the most part.

First, I expect them to win all of their home games. Their toughest competition at Cameron will be NC State, Clemson and, of course, North Carolina. But I have confidence they can take all of those. Clemson may want some revenge for the “clock issue” at Cameron last year, Duke could also still be without Zoubek at that point. But I’m counting on a win there. UNC is clearly one of the best teams in the country, and beating them anywhere will be difficult, even at Cameron. However, after having lost four in a row to UNC (assuming a loss in Chapel Hill at mid-season), Duke will finish the regular season with UNC at Cameron, DeMarcus’ senior day, the freshmen having played a full ACC season, and I fully expect them to get the job done.

As for road games, I’m counting UNC as a loss, and I think a win will be difficult to pull off at NC State as well. Maryland will tough road game as usual, no matter that they’ve not looked very impressive thus far. They’ll show up for Duke. Of course, in the ACC, I think they could lose any other road game as well, but I expect a minimum of a split on the road. So, I’ll go with a 4-4 road record.

After predicting their finish last year and seeing them fall short, I’m a little apprehensive about doing so again this year. Nevertheless, while I - along with everyone else - expect UNC to win the regular season, I expect Duke to finish no worse than tied for second at 12-4. Hopefully that won’t prove to be optimistic again. They’ll have to stay healthy to do so, but I think they will.

The ACC season has begun.

GTHC!