Did anyone want to win the ACC regular season?
This has been a wild week. Mid-week, Virginia Tech and UNC both lost. Granted, that gave Virginia a share of the regular season title, so they already had that wrapped up. However, they could have won the regular season outright yesterday with a win over then-last place Wake Forest.
Instead, they lost, creating a four-way tie in the loss column coming into today’s games, where the other three teams would play.
Early this afternoon, Virginia Tech could have secured a share of the title at home today, against a Clemson team that has completely fallen apart. Clemson had lost nine of eleven before beating Miami mid-week, and then manages to go into Blacksburg and win their second in a row, eliminating Tech’s claim to a share of the title.
Boston College, suddenly back in the picture with all of the losses earlier this week, could have also secured a share with a win at Georgia Tech. But Georgia Tech needed another win to make their case for an at-large NCAA bid. So, that was destined to be a tough one for BC, and, not surprisingly, Tech came away with the win.
Finally, Carolina, after losing two in a row, was finally able to break the streak in their home finale and share the regular season title with Virginia. Statistically, Duke again played with UNC in most categories, but they have five more turnovers and didn’t shoot as well, especially the 7-23 from 3-point range. The outcome was not surprising, particularly with Carolina returning home after two road losses in a row and the fact that Carolina still wants a #1 seed in the NCAA, and a third loss in a row would put that in serious jeopardy. They may still need to win the ACC tournament, though, depending on how other potential #1 seeds fare in their own this week. Currently, the expectation is that Ohio State, Kansas and UCLA have a #1 seed locked up, and everyone else - UNC, Wisconsin, and Florida, primarily - are played for the last one. I’m not so sure anyone has a #1 locked up just yet, but barring early upsets in their tournaments, that seems the most likely at this point.
So now, as for the ACC, the expected NCAA tournament teams finished as follows:
North Carolina,11-5
Virginia,11-5
Virginia Tech,10-6
Boston College,10-6
Maryland,10-6
Duke,8-8
Georgia Tech,8-8
Amazing. Everyone expected UNC to run away with the regular season this year, but only a bad loss by Virginia in the final game gave them a share. And Virginia Tech and Boston College were close to having a share of it, too. If Maryland had picked up their play a little earlier, they might have been in the mix, too. And if Duke could have closed out the three games they lost by a total of five points, they’d have mixed it up even more. Florida State and Clemson are still hoping for bids, but I think that’s unlikely. FSU probably has a better shot, albeit very slim.
The ACC is always one of the top conferences, sometimes the best, sometimes maybe second or third. But this is probably the best the ACC has been overall for a number of years. And now, with the scenario possible that UNC could end up the #5 seed in the tournament, they’ve ended up just where they were supposed to be - the #1 seed. Nevertheless, the ACC tournament this week should be a scene, man.
The seeding is as follows:
1. UNC
2. Virginia
3. Virginia Tech
4. Boston College
5. Maryland
6. Georgia Tech
7. Duke
8. Clemson
9. Florida State
10. NC State
11. Wake Forest
12. Miami
The bracket (pdf) can be viewed here.
I’ve not studied why Georgia Tech gets the #6 over Duke, but I still think that they get a decent draw. NC State won’t be an easy first round opponent, but they did win in Raleigh this season, which makes me think they could do so on a neutral court, especially since they’re a better team now. They would then get Virginia, who they lost to by two on a last second shot at Virginia a few weeks ago. They might have a fair chance in that one. Then would likely be Virginia Tech, who they lost to by 2 in their only meeting this year as well, and, again, they’ve improved a lot since that first ACC game of the season. (Of course, Georgia Tech could also come out of that bracket.)
So, while nothing is going to be easy for anyone in the ACC tournament this year, especially for a young team like Duke, but if they have any chance at the finals, this path might be their best shot. No UNC, no Maryland, and those are the two teams they had the most difficulty with. Wake, Georgia Tech’s first round opponent, would be an easier game than NC State, but I think I’d rather have Virginia in the second round than Virginia Tech. I think they can beat Virginia, but VT may be a more difficult game. I’d rather have them in the semi’s, with two wins and a little tournament experience for the freshmen. But nothing really matters if they can’t beat NC State. And that’s not a given. Nothing is, for anyone, this year.
Regardless, it’s March, baby. The most wonderful time of the year.
I think the ACC is down this year, we’ll see in the tournament (NCAA), but I believe this will be the year of the West (PAC 10) and underdogs.
March 6, 2007
Well, I guess it depends on how you define “down”. They aren’t as top-heavy as they usually are (with Duke & UNC often in the top 10 together), so maybe that’s what you’re going by, but top to bottom they’re as good as anybody with the possible exception of the Big East. (But then again, the Big East has like 27 teams in the conference now.)
According to the RPI, as of March 5th, the ACC has 9 teams in the top 50. As for the 6 major conferences it breaks down like this (top 50 teams):
The ACC has 4 teams in the top 30, which is as many as anyone (at least 2 others had 4 in the top 30.) They’ve had some quality wins outside of conference, too (Virginia beat Arizona, UNC beat Big 10 champion Ohio State, Duke beat Big East champion Georgetown, FSU beat SEC champion Florida, etc.)
And, of course, Sagarin’s conference ratings has the ACC at #1.
As a whole, the conference is clearly better than they’ve been in years, and it’s easily better than almost all of the others.
They will likely get more teams in the NCAA tournament than anyone else (although the Big East might match them.)
If they’re down this year, everyone else must be, too, and even more so.
March 6, 2007
I know their conference is ranking high, I am just picking them not to do so well in the NCAA’s. We need to get a blogger tournment pickem going.
March 7, 2007
You could be right about that, although I don’t think that’s an indication of a down year. Of course, people always remember march, so if they did have a lot of teams lose early, people might say the same thing (and of course, I would disagree.)
UNC, with all of their talent, is still young and it has shown at times. Duke is clearly young. Virginia is weak inside, which could kill them depending on who they’re playing. Virgiina Tech I think could make some noise, but they have no tournament experience, so I’m not sure how they’ll do. Maryland is a veteran team and is playing extremely well, and hopefully hasn’t peaked too early. Georgia Tech has finished strong, but they’ve got some young guys, too, who’ve never been there. BC is still missing Williams, but they’ve got two very good seniors, including ACC player of the year Jared Dudley. I thought they would do better last year, but they fell short. It will all depend on the paths they have to take as to how well they’ll do, but that’s true of most everyone.
A lot of people seem to think Kansas is playing as well as anyone right now. They should get a #1 seed, and they’re probably out to make up for losing in the first round the last two years.
The great thing about college basketball these days is that you can’t really judge it as easily in the past. (case in point: George Mason last year). That’s what makes the tournament so much fun.
I love March.
March 7, 2007
My picks if not in the same bracket…
UCLA, Flordia, Georgetown, BYU/Pac 10 lower seed.
March 7, 2007
yeah, G’town has been playing well also. I think JTIII has gotten them close to their former glory under his dad, and I think he’ll keep them at the top of the Big East and restore them as a national power in years to come. I like him and hope he does well.
I’ve heard some heads on TV say they believe Arizona could make a run.
March 7, 2007
As an Arizona fan I pick them out in the first and maximum second round. Some teams like to play defense (Arizona does not). I think Air Force could also upset some people (the princeton offense is very different).
March 7, 2007
What do you think now? Both my teams (other than UF) lost big games. Arizona to Oregon and Air Force might have just played themselves out of the tournament.
March 9, 2007
I’ve decided after the games so far this weekend that there’s no sense in trying to figure it out…
March 10, 2007