Well, it’s rivalry week. Texas and Texas A&M played Monday night. Michigan-Ohio State was last night. USC-UCLA is later tonight. But, of course, no rivalry in college basketball - and few rivalries in all of sports - can compare to Duke-Carolina, who will clash at Cameron Indoor tonight.

Pat Forde, who no longer has any credibility, suggests that the bigger rivalry game in the ACC this week is Virginia-Virginia Tech. He suggests this based on current league standings. I’ll tell you what - after Virginia and Tech finish in the top 3 spots almost every year for, I don’t know, maybe 20 years, then we can start comparing them to Duke-UNC. Until then, don’t embarrass yourself. You might as well compare the annual Indiana-Purdue football game to Michigan-Ohio State.

Nevertheless, I must start with the FSU game from the weekend. Duke managed to jump all over FSU to start the game, but with Josh McRoberts in foul trouble, FSU climbed back into the game by halftime. The rest of the way it was a battle, and Duke, as has happened several times this year, was unable to close out a close game. For the second straight game, McRoberts missed a short jumper inside in the closing seconds that would have won the game (just like the Virginia game a few days earlier.) They just can’t finish the tight ones, with the exception of Clemson (which, of course, was controversial.)

FSU has had somewhat of a Jekyll & Hyde team in recent years, playing well sometimes and not at others. They have played pretty solid this season thus far, though, with no bad losses that I can see. Plus, they are one of only two teams to beat #1 Florida thus far. So they are a talented team. Plus, they’ve played Duke pretty well several times this decade, including two down-to-the-wire games last year, in which they split. So, FSU was going to be a tough game. It’s disappointing to lose, and at home, but hopefully they’ll gain from the loss.

FSU coach Leonard Hamilton had a nice quote after the game:

It meant an awful lot to our players and to our program because Duke has set a benchmark - they set the bar awful high. All the teams - especially the ones that are trying to become programs of significance or a program that is competitive year in and year out in the ACC - Duke has set a standard by which most of us are being judged by.

Duke has indeed set the bar high in the ACC of late. In years past, since the 50’s, it’s usually been Carolina and Duke that have done that. Over the last 10 years, it’s clearly been Duke. The guard has changed, at least for this year, with Duke’s youth playing a major factor. It would be nice if Luol Deng was a senior and Shaun Livingston was a junior on this team. That would help a lot. But the NBA rarely allows the best players (who have real next-level potential) to stay more than a year or two. Duke hasn’t been hurt too badly by this thus far, but losing those two to the 2004 draft has hurt them, and it is particularly evident this year.

Nobody on this Duke team has played more than two full seasons. DeMarcus Nelson, the only junior, was out part of last year with injuries. They still seem to lack on-the-floor leadership and a true “go to” guy. There’s no Laettner, no Battier, no Reddick. They’ll be a better team next year, with more talented freshmen on the way (including a shooter who’s being compared to Redick in range and accuracy.)

As I mentioned, winning the close ones is a battle. They’ve now lost 3 of 4 conference games by a total of 5 points. It’s not like this is 1995, where they went 2-14 in conference play. However, there is one comparison to this point - that 1995 team lost 8 of their 14 games by an average of less than 3 points per game. They had trouble finishing as well. They’ll obviously finish better than that team, but they are likely looking at their worst conference record since 1996, when they finished 8-8 in the conference.

They have - as Hamilton suggested - dominated the league for 10 years. As evidence, note the following number from the last 10 years (1997-2006):

• They have a combined conference record against constant opponents of 150-29. That does not include recent additions BC, Virginia Tech and Miami. It does include ACC tournament games as well as the one NCAA tournament game against Maryland in the 2001 Final Four. Any team, especially in a basketball conference, who wins 84% of their league games over a 10 year period is certainly setting the standard.
• They have only lost twice to the same opponent in a given season twice - to UNC in 1998, and Maryland in 2005. Only Maryland swept the regular season (UNC won their second game in the ACC tournament.)
• They have won 7 ACC regular season titles and 7 ACC tournament titles, including 5 in a row for both (regular season 1997-2001, tournament 1999-2003). Three times they won both.
• They’ve been to the finals of the ACC tournament 9 straight years.
• Their highest loss count against conference opponents was in 1997 and 2003, when they lost 5 games.
• Their best was in 1999, when they were 19-0.
• Over the 1998-2000 seasons, they were 54-3 in league games, and 46-2 in regular season league games.
• In this decade (2000 forward), they’ve only lost more than 4 times to one opponent - Maryland, who has won 7 times against Duke. UNC and FSU have currently won 4 (including Sunday’s game.) Virginia Tech has actually won 2 of 5 from Duke, and probably should have won 3 of 5 were it not for Sean Dockery’s “miracle” shot last season in Cameron. Clemson is the only team not to have beaten Duke in the last 10 years, having not won since the 96 season. Georgia Tech’s win earlier this year was only their second in 10 years.

All of that to say, Duke has, indeed, set the standard in the ACC over the last 10 years, and that means a lot of things. Among those is that the target on their backs continues to grow. Everyone wants to beat them, and a win at Cameron is particularly special, as the post-game celebrations of Virgina Tech and FSU this season demonstrate. With their youngest, least-experienced team under Krzyzewski, it’s not surprising that their struggling to win a few games, and will continue as the toughest part of their schedule lies ahead. Success like they’ve had of late does not last forever, and this season is shaping up to be a “down” year for Duke (despite the fact that they should still finish with 20 or more wins.)

So, next up - UNC, at Cameron, tonight. The rivalry, of course, is legendary. Al Featherston has some good thoughts on the rivalry this week. The Crazies usually save their best for UNC (including the famous “In-Hale, Ex-Hale” serenade to UNC player Steve Hale, who was on the bench in street clothes with a collapsed lung.) As if Carolina needed more motivation to beat their biggest rival, Duke has won 16 of the last 20 (although 2 of the 4 UNC wins have come at Cameron in 2001 and 2006.) Duke is 31-30 against Carolina in the Krzyzewski era. Duke has swept UNC 4 times in the last 8 years (1999, 2000, 2002, 2004) including 3 wins each in 1999 and 2002. All of those things, coupled with Duke’s youth & inexperience and UNC’s depth, points to a likely UNC win.

Of course, you never know what will happen. The cliche is that you can throw out the records when the two get together, and that’s true. You also can, often times, throw out any perceived talent gap (whether real or not.) In 1995, Duke was severely outmanned when the #2 ranked Heels came to Cameron with Duke in the midst of their 13-18 season (and 2-14 in the ACC). Duke pushed the Heels to 2 overtimes before eventually falling. (They also played well at season’s end in Chapel Hill, staying in the game until UNC pulled away late.) In the 2002 ACC tournament, Carolina was in the middle of their own nightmare season, when Duke finally ended their 8-20 season in the first round. Duke had pummeled the Heels by 29 and 25 during the regular season, but UNC stayed with them for most of the game before the Devils managed a 12 point win. It doesn’t matter who’s up or down. It’s usually a good game regardless. Hopefully, tonight will be as well.

Duke’s defense is the best in the conference, and UNC’s offense is the best, so that will be key. But what will probably be the biggest factor is Duke’s offense. If they have any kind of off night, they could not only lose, but could be out of it long before it’s over. They’re both coming off of losses, and that’s not really a good sign for Duke. After their first ACC loss at Virginia Tech, they went to Clemson and hammered the Tigers. Duke has lost 2 in a row, and if there’s any team they’d love to break that streak against, it’s UNC. If they lose, they very well could end up in a 5-game losing streak, with their next two games at Maryland and at BC.

So, I’ve rambled on long enough. Most seem to expect UNC to win going away, even at Cameron, and that’s certainly possible. But it’s not too often that something like that happens in this rivalry, so hopefully this game will be another great Duke-UNC game that isn’t over before the clock runs out. UNC is young as well, and at times their youth has shown. Hopefully, Duke’s defense can disrupt them enough to give the offense a chance. If not, it could be a long night.