The non-conference season is now over, and the next chapter of the season begins for Duke this weekend. Virginia Tech comes to Cameron Saturday as Duke begins ACC conference play. Last year’s game ended with a miraculous finish when Sean Dockery’s half-court shot at the buzzer won the game for the Blue Devils. Hopefully, this year they will not only beat the Hokies, but do it with less difficulty and without the need for a miracle shot. But, since joining the ACC two years ago, the Hokies have proven to be a difficult win for Duke nearly every time. So, nothing can be assumed.

I was reading Al Featherston’s article over at Duke Basketball Report regarding Duke and the beginning of the ACC season. He points out some numbers for Duke that I found interesting. Duke ended the year 12-1 overall, which brings Duke’s November & December record for the last 10 years (including this season) to 101-7. They’ve only lost 7 games prior to the New Year in the 10 seasons. Only once did they lose more than 1 game prior to the new year. And, as quick glance at the schedules of recent years will attest to, Krzyzewski doesn’t schedule a string of Nobody State’s during the preseason like some programs. (Georgetown used to be notorious for this.) He actually schedules a good amount of decent teams to prepare his team for the rest of the season. As Featherston points out, Duke’s schedule thus far is in the top 10 nationally (and should remain there with an ACC schedule ahead of them.)

More impressive is that, during the last 9 seasons in January, Duke is 72-5. Only 5 losses in 9 years when most of those games are ACC games (no more than 2 games a year that are non-conference). I will admit, though, that a few of those years the ACC was weaker than usual. Duke’s record in February is not quite as good. It seems to me that their February schedule tends to be more difficult for reasons that aren’t obvious. In recent years they tend to have seen their more difficult road games in the second half of the ACC schedule for whatever reason, resulting in a few more losses in February. This appears to be true once again this season, with games at Virginia, Maryland and Boston College in February and Carolina in March.

And, of course, most impressive is that Duke has now won 7 of the last 10 regular season championships in the ACC, and 7 of the last 8 conference tournament championships. Clearly, they have been king of the ACC for the last 10 years. Whether their remarkable success will continue in the coming years, particularly with Carolina now firmly back from the Guthridge/Doherty years, remains to be seen. But even if Carolina becomes the dominant team for the near future, Duke’s ACC success - much like their 7 final fours in 9 years in the late 80’s/early 90’s - is certainly something to marvel at, in my honest (albeit biased) opinion.

So, as the conference season begins, I still don’t quite know how I should feel about this team. The conference may be stronger this year than it has in several years. Carolina is, of course, the most talented team in the conference and most likely in the country. It’s clearly unrealistic to expect anyone else to win the ACC regular season. They’re young enough that I don’t think they’ll go undefeated, but they could very well escape with only a couple of losses. Georgia Tech, Virginia, Maryland and Boston College should be strong as well. And most of the other teams will still be dangerous, at least on their home floors.

My primary concern for Duke right now is their youth and inexperience, of course. A win in their home opener this weekend, as well as a win in their road opener at Georgia Tech, would go along way in making me feel much better. Their offense appears to have improved in recent games (including their field goal percentage), which was also a major concern. I think they’re starting to get a better feel for each other and playing together. However, their seemingly inability to play a good 40 minutes in any game this year is still bothersome, but perhaps I’m expecting more than I should.

The other thing that has bothered me in the early season was the play of Josh McRoberts. In particular, I was wanting him to score more. He certainly wasn’t playing bad. In fact, it was just the opposite. He does so many things on the floor, he was still playing quite well and contributing a lot even with fewer points than I expected. However, his recent stats have been improving across the board, including his point production. Check out his stats for the season compared to the last 4 games:

	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	Turnovers
Season	12.6	7.9	4.2	1.0	2.6	2.0
Last 4 Games	16.5	10.8	4.5	1.8	4.0	1.3

He’s improved in six different categories and I believe that if he continues to put up similar numbers, along with the obvious improvement of Greg Paulus in recent games, the emergence of Jon Sheyer as a legitimate 3-point threat, and the great play DeMarcus Nelson has been exhibiting since day one, they will be okay on the offensive end during conference play. (Their defense has been the strongest part of their game thus far, so it’s not been a concern.) They still aren’t going to have the kind of year they did last year, but it might not be as unexpected as I once thought for them to finish #2 in the conference after all.

Here’s my prediction: Looking at the ACC schedule they have, I’m going to predict a record of 10-6 in ACC play, and a third place finish. I’m not sure who might finish second, and even 10 wins may be a lot to expect from such a young team in the ACC, but Krzyzewski tends to get more out of a team than just about anyone out there (and they obviously have talent), so I don’t think it’s unrealistic. They could finish worse, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished better, but I’ll go with this for now.

And, of course, ABC.