I’ve decided, at this early stage in the season, to state why I believe neither Florida or North Carolina - the two most popular picks to win it all in college basketball this season - won’t.

I’ve already gone on record to say I believe that North Carolina will be the best team at the end of the season (although if Greg Oden is what he appears to be and remains healthy, I may have to rethink that.) However, I believe that neither UNC nor Florida will take home the big prize.

Florida

Florida was the preseason favorite. A team that just won it all, and has practically everyone back. This rarely happens, but is certainly no guarantee that a team will win another title.

Only once since UCLA’s magical run in the 60’s and 70’s has a team repeated as champion. There are a handful of teams who have been to two straight title games. The teams that come to mind are UNC 81-82, Houston 83-84, Georgetown 84-85, Duke 90-91-92, Michigan 92-93, Arkansas 94-95, and Kentucky 96-97-98. The 98 Kentucky team was the last, so it’s been 8 years since a team even returned to the title game. Of those teams that have in the last 30 years, only one - Duke 92 - has pulled off the repeat. Duke, like Florida this year, had pretty much everyone back from the 91 team.

A few recent examples of those who kept their team basically intact after winning a title but fell short of repeating include UNLV 91, Arkansas 95 and Arizona 98. Of those three, only Arkansas reached the title game, and Arizona didn’t even reach the final four. It’s hard to repeat.

North Carolina

UNC has the most talent in the country. That’s one of the reasons I believe they will be the best when March rolls around. However, the odds are against them as well.

Again, since UCLA, only twice has a team won a second title less than 5 years after the first. The aforementioned Duke teams of 91-92, of course, and Kentucky in 96 and 98. The closest otherwise were five years apart - Indiana (76,81) and Connecticut (99,04).

The obvious example to bring up here is UConn just last season. After winning in 2004, UConn was expected to win their second in three years last season. They clearly had the most talent, as UNC does this year. Yet, they fell short in the regional finals to George Mason.

One difference between UConn last year and UNC this year is that UConn was a veteran team and came up short. UNC is much younger. Does that make it even less likely? Probably not. In fact, I think this UNC team may be more focused on the task at hand instead of what is on the horizon (i.e. the NBA) as I felt some of UConn’s players were last year. Nevertheless, I’m siding with the numbers and I don’t think UNC will win it all.

So, there you go. No real hard evidence. Probably nothing really compelling, either. Just a few numbers that make me lean the direction of someone else taking it all besides either of these two. So, who’s my pick? Maybe I’ll have an idea in January after a few more games have been played.

Football and basketball?

I mentioned Oden and Ohio State. With the announcement this week of the BCS championship game, it is pretty interesting that both of those schools are popular final four picks for basketball as well (and rightly so.)

Florida already has a basketball title, and winning a football title for the same calendar year would be pretty amazing which I don’t believe has ever been done (or at least not in recent history.) Not only that, they could actually win a second basketball title (although you now know my feelings on that), which would surely be unprecedented.

On the other hand, Ohio State has the opportunity of winning both titles the same school year, also unprecedented, I assume. If Oden is the man he appears to be, they will be tough to contend with based on what I’ve seen of them pre-Oden. While I only saw highlights on SportsCenter, his numbers in game one were impressive over the weekend.

I’m going to lean towards none of these happening, of course. I tend to think Ohio State will win the football title, and someone else - a UCLA, perhaps - will take home the basketball prize. I’m actually hoping (assuming it won’t be Duke, which I am) that this is the year of the “mid-major”. I’d love to see someone like Butler win it all. Their stock is certainly up now that they won the preseason NIT. Gonzaga (who may really be a major program in a mid-major conference by now) blazed the trail as far as tournament success (at least in the “field of 64″ era), and George Mason finally broke through to the Final Four just last year, so now it’s time for one of them to have their “one shining moment.” It’s probably unlikely this year - it may take a few more - but there’s still hope. Go Bulldogs!