I posted some of this on Mike’s blog in a comment, but figured I’d go ahead and post my BCS thoughts here as well. After the weekend games and the release of the lastest BCS poll, I see only two possible scenarios for the BCS title game:

• Ohio State vs USC
• Ohio State vs Michigan

Considering the type of game that was played in Columbus, a lot of the people who may have been on the fence about a rematch may be swayed to lean that direction now. It was a fun game to watch and exciting to the end. It was close, a 3-point game, at Ohio State. A neutral field game should be just as good, right? Well, I’m not so sure about that. Often rematches in the same season are not as good as the original.

Regardless, Michigan remained #2 in the BCS poll, and I don’t see anyone except USC with a shot at jumping them. Here’s the way I see the “contenders”:

• Arkansas - The Hogs would need more help than they can get, in my opinion. Assuming everyone above them lost and they beat LSU and Florida, I just don’t see them moving ahead of Michigan. I just think the distance is too great. They are in a position not unlike Auburn two years ago. They started so far out of the race, they just can’t make up the distance. They could get close, but not close enough. At best, they could end up third.
• Notre Dame - I’m still trying to figure out why they’re even in the discussion (and ranked in the BCS top five.) They’ve only beaten one team that is ranked in the BCS top 25 (Penn State at #25), and the other top 25 team they played was Michigan, who embarressed them in South Bend. If they beat USC, they would have more of a legitimate argument, but that’s not going to happen. If they weren’t Notre Dame, they would not be in the top 10 right now.
• Florida - Florida may have the best shot, but I still don’t think it’s enough. Granted, Florida should be undefeated right now. A meltdown at Auburn is the only reason they’re not. Auburn didn’t score an offensive touchdown and score 27 points in the win. You don’t do that without some help, which Florida freely gave that night. If Florida beats FSU and Arkansas, they may come close, but I wouldn’t see them passing Michigan (and they’d still need USC to lose, too.)
• USC - The Trojans are the only team, as I’ve said, that I believe can move ahead of Michigan, and I believe they will if they beat Notre Dame and UCLA. They are currently #2 in both of the human polls involved (USA Today, Harris), and I think the wins over Notre Dame and UCLA might help them in the computer side of things.

I’ve been preaching for weeks that I don’t want to see a rematch. I said that again just a few days ago. However, after Saturday, I’m more willing to accept it. I think these two teams, along with USC, are the best three teams in the country. Florida, Arkansas and Notre Dame just aren’t as good, in my opinion. If USC loses, Michigan would, and probably should, be there. If USC wins out, I think they might jump Michigan and win the spot.

Either way, I say Ohio State wins it all. And either way, the BCS still sucks and we still need a playoff.

Arkansas vs LSU

Since I may not post again before the game (I’m leaving town tomorrow), I thought I’d go ahead and offer a few thoughts on this game. I’ve been on the fence about whether or not they would win this game. I’m leaning again today in the direction of them winning. Nutt has only lost once in Little Rock, and the Hogs always play well there. True, that one loss was to LSU two years ago, but that Arkansas team was a much lesser team than this one. I have a good feeling about it (at the moment, anyway) and I think they’ll get it done. My concern is that it will take a lot out of them prior to the SEC title game, or, worse, someone will end up injured. If I had to choose, I’d rather have the win over Florida and an SEC championship. But, they will get an extra day to rest with the LSU game being on Friday.

My prediction will sound familiar. Four years ago was “The Miracle on Markham” when Arkansas beat LSU in Little Rock (War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock being on Markham Street.) The Tigers kicked a field goal with 40 seconds remaining to take a 20-14 lead. With a field goal to tie no longer an option, Arkansas proceeded to score the winning touchdown on a 31-yard Matt Jones pass into the end zone with only 9 seconds remaining in the game, giving the Hogs a 21-20 win. This year will be another close, hard-fought win for the Hogs: Arkansas 21, LSU 20.

CBE Classic

I watched Duke’s fourth win of the season last night as they defeated Air Force 71-56 in Kansas City. With the win, Duke now has 1,800 victories, the fourth school to reach that mark (behind Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas.)

This was the first game away from home, and a good Air Force team was a great test for the young Blue Devils. DeMarcus Nelson has emerged as the “go to” guy early in the season. He had 23 points on 7-10 FG and 6-7 FT last night. They looked good on defense, and played very well on offense, including shooting 74% in the first half. Duke had five players with 8 points or more, with three of them in double figures (Nelson, Thomas, Scheyer). Paulus and McRoberts both had 5 assists. I am very encouraged thus far with the performance of this team. There will still be rough nights with such a young team - perhaps tonight against #16 Marquette - but the potential this team is showing is great. They’ve been playing a lot of players, although last night three players - the “veterans” - played 34 or more minutes each. I figure the rotation will settle down in the coming weeks and some of the guys will play fewer minutes as the competition gets better. Tonight’s game with Marquette will be their first ranked opponent, and certainly their toughest test in this young season. But, regardless of what happens tonight, they’re looking good and should only get better.